A futuristic recipe perfect for warmer weather and stay-at-home flood days (only if you live on higher ground)
Cook time: 11-31 years [2030-2050]
Pre heat the oven: Below 2 degrees Celsius (Paris Climate Agreement)
Serves: 8.5 billion people [if baked for 11 years], 9.8 billion people [if baked for 31 years]
Difficulty level: High
- Alternative protein technology
- Milk alternatives
- Biotechnology such as CRISPR/CAS9 and cell culture
- Food waste and loss technology
- Global aging population
- Emerging middle class
[adjusted to cultural preferences]
- The World Resources Institute (2018) forecasts that 56% more crop calories will be needed above 2010 levels to feed a projected 9.8 billion population in 2050. To produce the additional calories, 593 million hectares of additional crop land is required. To put this in context, this is around twice the size of India. Yet, the additional calorie target must be achieved without the needed agricultural land.
- Land use aside, our current production and consumption chain already contributes up to 19-29% of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, how will we produce more food while staying below 2 degrees Celsius in 2030?
- We must also address water stress since agriculture accounts for 70% of all water withdrawal globally. According to China Water Risk (2018), China and India will not have sufficient water to ensure food and energy security in their current export-led growth model.
- Through a demand lens, we see an aging population, millennials overtaking Gen X in terms of “spending power” and a growing emerging market middle class seeking a “meatier” diet. As culture governs our diet, analysing this shift in demographics must be done with cultural considerations. We look at what religion, ethnicity and age mean to our consumption patterns.
- Through the supply lens, we see a growing injection of investments for protein diversification. As of May 2019, investments in plant-based food brands have topped US$17bn since 2009. We continue to see the sale of milk and meat alternatives to gain traction. The dairy alternative market was valued at US$15.4bn in 2018 and annual sales of plant-based meat at US$2bn.
- Biotechnology, such as CRISPR/Cas9, could help us boost productivity, resilience and await commercialisation but could trigger the ‘yuck factor’ from consumers.
- We must also look at problems closer to home as one-third of food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted. That means creative technologies will play an important role in minimising our waste.
- As our resources tighten and our population expands, we SHOULD “panic and act as if our house is on fire” because if our kitchen burns, we will be very hungry indeed.
- Season to taste!
Read ADMCF’s white paper “Food for Thought” to better understand the future of our food systems through the lens of supply and demand.